You have been approached by the Australian Chamber of Commerce. One of the
many responsibilities this organization has it to represent the business interests of small
enterprises. A particular concern of small enterprises are the peaks and troughs that typically
occur over an economic cycle. Peaks, because they are often associated with rising costs of
inputs, and troughs because they are often associated with decreases in revenue.
many responsibilities this organization has it to represent the business interests of small
enterprises. A particular concern of small enterprises are the peaks and troughs that typically
occur over an economic cycle. Peaks, because they are often associated with rising costs of
inputs, and troughs because they are often associated with decreases in revenue.
Of a particular concern at this point in time has been the effect of the global financial crisis.
In particular, can the effects of this crisis be quantified and what does this mean for the
immediate future?
immediate future?
As a specialized group of business analysts you have been asked to investigate:
1. What was the effect of the global financial crisis on retails sales? Hint, you need to think
about how different expenditure items have different levels of importance and how
dummy variables can be used to identify patterns and events in data.
about how different expenditure items have different levels of importance and how
dummy variables can be used to identify patterns and events in data.
2. Look ahead, and consider what the medium term prognosis (5 years) is for the retail
trade sector.
trade sector.
Hint: To contextualize your economic story you should also think of other economic variables
including interest rates and unemployment. Sources of data include the Australian Bureau of
Statistics and the Reserve Bank of Australia.
including interest rates and unemployment. Sources of data include the Australian Bureau of
Statistics and the Reserve Bank of Australia.
Details of the report are as follows:
1. The report has two parts – due dates will be published online:
a. Part 1: A 300 word document specifying the structure of the report, which retail
variables you are planning to investigate. A description of the retail variables
and an outline of other variables that you plan to take into consideration. Note,
you will need to explain why these variables are important in the context of
Retail sales and the wider economy. Also a brief description of the model you
intend to use.
variables you are planning to investigate. A description of the retail variables
and an outline of other variables that you plan to take into consideration. Note,
you will need to explain why these variables are important in the context of
Retail sales and the wider economy. Also a brief description of the model you
intend to use.
b. Final report outlining your conclusions. No more than 2500 words. In this report
you must provide
you must provide
i. A description of your retail trade variables.
ii.Provide plots of your chosen variables.
iii. Explain how your regression models will provide the means to
answer the above questions. Define the characteristics of the regression
model.
answer the above questions. Define the characteristics of the regression
model.
iv. Draw any conclusions acknowledging the inherent limitations.
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